Garden State Times

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) has released its latest Small Business Economic Trends survey, marking the 50th anniversary of this economic data collection. The report shows a decline in optimism among small business owners in New Jersey, with the Optimism Index dropping by 0.1 points to 90.7 in October. This marks the 22nd consecutive month below the long-term average.

"This month marks the 50th anniversary of NFIB’s small business economic survey," said NFIB State Director Eileen Kean. "NFIB’s most recent Small Business Economic Trends data show us that small business owners are not optimistic about the current economic environment and are still dealing with inflation and labor struggles."

Inflation remains a significant concern for many businesses, with 22% identifying it as their primary issue, although this is down one point from last month. The outlook for future business conditions remains bleak, with no change from September's net negative 43%.

Sales figures have also seen a downturn, with a net negative 17% of owners reporting higher nominal sales over the past three months—this is nine points lower than September and represents the lowest reading since July 2020.

Job openings continue to be difficult to fill, with 43% of owners indicating hard-to-fill positions—a figure unchanged from September and historically high. Despite these challenges, a net 24% plan to increase compensation in the coming months.

In terms of profitability, reports indicate a decline in positive profit trends to a net negative 32%, down eight points from September. Factors contributing to lower profits include weaker sales and increased material costs.

Capital expenditures remain steady, with 57% of owners making outlays over the past six months. Planned capital outlays stand at 24%. Inventory levels have seen slight changes, with more reductions reported than increases.

By industry sector, shortages are most frequently reported in transportation (16%), finance (12%), and retail (11%). Construction has seen some relief due to slowing home sales amid rising interest rates.

Pricing strategies reflect ongoing inflationary pressures; unadjusted figures show that while some sectors experienced price hikes—such as finance and retail—others like wholesale saw varied adjustments.

The NFIB Research Center continues its long-standing tradition of collecting economic trends data through surveys conducted since the fourth quarter of 1973 on a quarterly basis and monthly since 1986. These insights help gauge small business sentiment across various economic conditions.