The Bank of Russia announced on May 21 that lending in the banking sector grew moderately during the first quarter of 2026, with a slowdown observed in claims on companies and household mortgages.
This update is significant as it reflects changing dynamics in both corporate and consumer demand for loans, influenced by government spending patterns and evolving mortgage program terms. The central bank adjusted its forecasts downward for several key lending categories based on these trends.
According to the statement, claims on companies increased by only 0.7%, a slowdown attributed to high budget spending that reduced corporate demand for funding after receiving payments under government contracts. As a result, “the upper bound of the 2026 forecast range was decreased by 1 pp, now equalling 7–11% as compared to the previously forecast 7–12%.” Growth in outstanding mortgages among households also decelerated to 1.4%, following strong demand ahead of anticipated changes to the Family Mortgage programme from February. The new mortgage growth forecast range is now set at “6% to 10% (vs 6–11% in the previous forecast).”
Consumer loan portfolios edged up by just 0.3% over the quarter—the first increase since late 2024—driven mainly by credit card activity. The updated projection for consumer lending expansion is between “4–8%, as compared to the previously forecast rise of 4–9%.” This adjustment was made due to monetary conditions easing more slowly than expected.
Clients’ funds remained largely unchanged, with expectations for growth kept at between five and ten percent this year. Banks reported net profits totaling ₽1.2 trillion for the quarter, up from ₽0.9 trillion in Q4 last year—a performance linked mainly to lower operating expenses after seasonally high costs at year-end and fewer additional provisions related to non-core investments.
The profit outlook for banks has been revised upward: “The profit forecast for 2026 was adjusted upwards from ₽3.3–3.8 trillion to ₽3.4–3.9 trillion.” However, future quarters may see profit growth limited due to increased loss provisions required for highly leveraged companies facing ongoing challenges.
According to the official website, the Bank of Russia manages cash circulation amounting to trillions of rubles each year and serves as both issuer and regulator of national currency flows while operating independently from other government bodies.
